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ACA or Medicaid? How Virginia actually decides

You don't choose between ACA and Medicaid in Virginia — one application checks both, and the outcome depends on your household income. Here's exactly how that decision gets made, and what's changing with subsidies in 2026.

By Luay Sadqi, Licensed Agent (NPN 21370662) · August 2026

If you've started shopping for health coverage in Virginia and you're not sure whether you'll land on an ACA marketplace plan or Medicaid, that's normal — you're not supposed to know in advance. Virginia doesn't run these as two separate applications. One application, through Virginia's Insurance Marketplace, checks both, and where you land depends almost entirely on household income.

One application, two possible outcomes

When you apply through Virginia's Insurance Marketplace (marketplace.virginia.gov), the system automatically screens your household against Medicaid and CHIP eligibility before it ever shows you ACA plan options. In Virginia, that means checking against two programs:

If your household qualifies for either one, you're routed there. If not, you move forward into ACA marketplace plans — often with a premium tax credit that lowers your monthly cost, depending on income.

The number that decides it: in general, adult household income below 138% of the federal poverty level is likely to be directed to Medicaid rather than ACA plans — a result of Virginia's 2019 Medicaid expansion. Above that line, you typically move into ACA marketplace coverage instead. The exact dollar figure depends on household size and changes annually, so it's worth confirming your specific number rather than estimating.

Why this matters more than people expect

Medicaid and ACA marketplace plans work differently — different costs, different provider networks, different rules for changing plans later. Some people are surprised to land on Medicaid when they expected a marketplace plan, or the other way around. Neither outcome is better or worse across the board; they're just different systems built for different income levels. Knowing which one you're likely to land in ahead of time makes the whole process far less confusing.

What's changing for 2026

During the pandemic-era enhancements, ACA premium tax credits temporarily became available above the usual income ceiling, and got more generous throughout the standard range. Those enhanced credits are expiring. For 2026, subsidy eligibility is reverting toward the original ACA structure — generally households between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level — though some households already enrolled under the more generous rules may see transitional treatment at renewal. If your subsidy amount hasn't been rechecked recently, 2026 is the year to do it rather than assume it's unchanged.

 Medicaid (Cardinal Care / FAMIS)ACA Marketplace
Who it's generally forLower-income households, under ~138% FPLHouseholds roughly 100–400% FPL
Monthly costOften $0 or very lowVaries; often reduced by a premium tax credit
How you applySame application as ACASame application as Medicaid
2026 changeNo change to the income threshold itselfEnhanced subsidies expiring; reverting toward 100–400% FPL

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What if your income is right on the line?

Income near the Medicaid cutoff is exactly where people benefit most from having someone double-check the numbers before they apply — a household size change, a recent raise, or seasonal income can shift which side of 138% FPL you land on. Getting it right the first time avoids the hassle of re-applying or discovering mid-year that your coverage doesn't match your actual eligibility.

Income that isn't a steady paycheck is where this gets trickiest. Self-employed income, 1099 work, seasonal jobs, and irregular hours all have to be estimated and reported carefully — guess too low and you may owe money back at tax time if you received a larger premium tax credit than you actually qualified for; guess too high and you could miss out on savings you were entitled to. This is one of the most common reasons people get an outcome that surprises them, and it's worth walking through with someone before you submit.

What to have ready before you apply

Having these ready before you start the application makes the process faster and reduces the chance of an estimate that gets flagged for follow-up later.

How Honorbrook helps

We're an independent agency based in Virginia, and helping people navigate Virginia's Insurance Marketplace — including the Medicaid screening step — is something we do routinely, not as an afterthought. We'll walk through your household income with you, tell you honestly which program you're likely to land in, and help you enroll either way. It costs nothing to ask.

This article is general information, not insurance, tax, or legal advice. Income thresholds, subsidy amounts, and program rules change and vary by household — confirm your specific numbers with a licensed agent or Virginia's Insurance Marketplace directly.

Common questions

ACA vs. Medicaid FAQ

What are Cardinal Care and FAMIS?
Cardinal Care is Virginia's Medicaid program for eligible adults and families. FAMIS is Virginia's CHIP program, generally covering children (and sometimes pregnant individuals) in households that earn too much for Medicaid but could still use help affording coverage. Virginia's Insurance Marketplace checks both automatically in one application.
What income cutoff sends me to Medicaid instead of the Marketplace?
In general, adults with household income below 138% of the federal poverty level are likely directed to Medicaid, following Virginia's 2019 Medicaid expansion. The exact number depends on household size and changes yearly — worth confirming rather than assuming.
What's changing with ACA subsidies in 2026?
Temporarily enhanced premium tax credits are expiring. For 2026, subsidy eligibility is reverting toward the original ACA range, generally 100–400% of the federal poverty level, with some transitional treatment possible for already-enrolled households. Confirm your specific eligibility rather than assuming it's unchanged.

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